Market Pricing

What are the fair odds for a bet on a football or tennis match while it is in play?


Moreover, given a statistical model of how a game evolves, can one efficiently compute what such a fair price should be? And for all kinds of different outcomes?

The answer to the first question is a bit complicated. What is fair depends on the actual game at hand, the model one devises, and many other factors. There is no “right answer” to this problem, there are only better answers arising from more and more sophisticated statistical models. The second answer is more straightforward. Calculating “fair” odds given a model requires computation. The links below provide examples of the kind of models and tools we have built for sports bookmakers and other players in the sports gambling industry. To learn about integration and licensing contact sales.


Football

Clicking the launch button below will start a Java-based tool that automatically estimates football betting odds based on a statistical model. The tool allows you to enter in-game events like goals, corners, and yellow/red cards and then to see the effect of those events on a set of common football betting markets. Starting the clock will run the pricing engine in real time and prices will be updated every minute. The speed selector allows you to speed up the simulation time by several orders of magnitude, enabling you to run through a full match in a matter of minutes. Consult the help section below if you have trouble launching the application.


Tennis

Clicking the launch button below will start a Java-based tool that automatically estimates tennis betting odds based on a statistical model. The tool allows you to enter in-game events like points, games and sets won, and then to see the effect of those events on a set of common tennis betting markets. Consult the help section below if you have trouble launching the application.


Help with running the demos

To run these applications you must have Java 6 or later installed on your computer. Some problems running the applications can be resolved by downloading the latest Java Runtime Environment (JRE) from www.java.com. All other problems are browser specific, namely some browsers on some platforms do not support Java Web Start. You can always use the command line on your computer to start the application by issuing the commands

javaws https://betacular.com/system/jnlp/football/football-odds-estimation-tool.jnlp

and

javaws https://betacular.com/system/jnlp/tennis/tennis-pricing-prototype.jnlp

for the football and the tennis tool, respectively.